A NOTE ON DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS IN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT ASYMMETRIES

Oleg Korenok, Bruce Mizrach and Stanislav Radchenko ()

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2009, vol. 13, issue 2, 263-277

Abstract: In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and in aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as important demand-driven forces behind asymmetry.

Date: 2009
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