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EXPECTATION ERRORS IN CREDIT MARKET AND BUSINESS CYCLES

Kenichi Tamegawa and Shin Fukuda

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2016, vol. 20, issue 5, 1359-1380

Abstract: This study demonstrates how expectation errors in a credit market generate economic fluctuations. To this end, we employ simulation analysis using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our model includes two building blocks that are not included in the standard models: the banking sector and matching friction in the labor market. By introducing the banking sector, we can confirm that if economic agents fallaciously expect a rise in future asset prices, such expectations will cause an economic boom and bust. The variation of this fluctuation is quite large and the recession short-lived, but these drawbacks can be avoided by adding matching friction.

Date: 2016
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