PATTERNS OF UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS IN GERMANY

Daniela Rahn and Enzo Weber

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019, vol. 23, issue 1, 322-357

Abstract: Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, this paper provides deeper insight into unemployment dynamics in Germany. We identify a technology shock and two policy shocks that play a central role in business cycle research. Accordingly, we enrich the discussion on the sources of unemployment dynamics by considering demand-side impulses. The worker reallocation process varies substantially with the identified shocks. The job-finding rate plays a larger role after a technology shock and a monetary policy shock, whereas the separation rate appears to be the dominant margin after a fiscal policy shock. Technology shocks turn out to be relatively important for variations in the transition rates. Regarding policy shocks, our results point toward fiscal interventions as a promising instrument but with several limitations.

Date: 2019
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Working Paper: Patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:01:p:322-357_00

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