EXPECTATION EFFECTS OF REGIME SHIFTS ON LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS

Tong Wang

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019, vol. 23, issue 7, 3010-3033

Abstract: This paper shows that expectations of possible future regime shifts can contribute to recent deep downturn and stagnant recovery in the US labor market. Apart from the current economic regimes, rational agents consider how regimes will unfold in the future and form their expectations based on the probability of occurrence. Possible regime shifts considered are the stance of monetary policy toward inflation, the degree of real wage rigidity, and the degree of autocorrelation of the shock process. The anticipation of regime shifts alters agents' decision rules and feeds back to labor market dynamics.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:07:p:3010-3033_00

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