HOW DOES THE MACROECONOMY RESPOND TO STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS? THE ROLE OF SENTIMENT
Wei-Fong Pan
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2020, vol. 24, issue 2, 421-446
Abstract:
This study estimates the response of macroeconomic variables to stock market fluctuations in Japan and the United States. It emphasizes the economy's reaction to stock market bubbles and crashes. To do this, I propose a new way to identify bubbles and crashes by testing price-to-fundamental ratios using the newly developed trend-filtering approach. Regardless of the measures used, both countries' macroeconomy tends to respond positively to the positive shock of stock price. Asymmetric effects of the stock market are observed. Japan's macroeconomic variables, especially investment and industrial production, are more sensitive to market crashes, while those of the United States are more sensitive to stock bubbles. Finally, I provide evidence that market sentiment can affect the economy either directly or indirectly through the stock market.
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:24:y:2020:i:2:p:421-446_7
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Macroeconomic Dynamics from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().