INFLATION TARGETING UNDER INFLATION UNCERTAINTY—MULTI-ECONOMY EVIDENCE FROM A STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL

Matthias Hartmann (), Helmut Herwartz and Maren Ulm

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2022, vol. 26, issue 5, 1302-1337

Abstract: One of the most important advantages of an inflation target is that it helps to reduce uncertainty about future inflation. However, this confidence may be undermined if actual inflation continuously deviates from the target level. We examine how inflation uncertainty relates to the presence of an inflation target and deviations of inflation from the targeted level. Inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of an unobserved components stochastic volatility model that allows to distinguish between permanent and transitory inflation uncertainty. While long-term inflation appears largely stable in most economies, the short-term inflation uncertainty is found to be time-varying. Most notably, short-term inflation uncertainty is high if inflation rates are below the target level. This is particularly relevant for economies which are currently confronted with the presence of persistently low-inflation rates. Our findings suggest that announcing higher inflation targets as it is currently discussed may be costly in terms of provoking higher inflation uncertainty.

Date: 2022
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