Chapter I. The Home Economy

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1983, vol. 105, 5-18

Abstract: Over the past two years, total output has risen almost continuously, but slowly. The output estimate of GDP shows only one quarter (the first quarter of 1982 when production was affected by bad weather) in which output failed to increase. The rate of growth has varied, declining from 2 per cent a year in the second half of 1981 to less than 1 per cent a year over the first three quarters of 1982, then rising again to 1½-2 per cent in the final quarter of last year and the first quarter of this; but throughout it has been low by the standards of previous economic recoveries. By the first quarter of this year, output was only 2½ per cent higher than its trough in the second quarter of 1981 (in contrast to increases of 5 per cent, 9½ per cent and 6½ per cent at the corresponding stage of the three preceding recoveries) and still 4½ per cent below its peak in the second quarter of 1979.

Date: 1983
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