Chapter I. The Home Economy

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1986, vol. 117, 5-19

Abstract: Although information is still very incomplete for the second quarter, it seems likely that total output has continued to rise this year at a moderate rate—perhaps 1 ½ per cent a year. On constant fiscal policies, we would expect demand to grow just sufficiently during the rest of this year and in 1987 to keep non-oil GDP rising at about this rate, or perhaps just a little faster. Unemployment is still rising; the figures may soon level out, or possibly decline a little, under the impact of the special employment measures. Inflation is lower than for many years; it will probably edge up. The fall in oil prices has transformed the balance of payments. There could be a deficit on current account of substantial proportions in 1987.

Date: 1986
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