The Performance of National Institute Economic Forecasts

David Poulizac, Martin Weale and Garry Young

National Institute Economic Review, 1996, vol. 156, 55-62

Abstract: Economic forecasts are usually presented as point estimates, despite the margin of uncertainty which surrounds them. In November 1995 the National Institute began to present estimates of the probability of the government's inflation target being met and of there being a fall in GDP. This article describes the methods that we use for calculating these probabilities. We show, by studying eight successive forecasts of the same event, how forecast reliability improves as the forecast horizon approaches and demonstrate that this can be explained in terms of the accumulation of information about the state of the economy.

Date: 1996
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Performance of National Institute Economic Forecasts (1996)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:nierev:v:156:y:1996:i::p:55-62_4

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in National Institute Economic Review from National Institute of Economic and Social Research Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().