Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: Identifying the Shocks

Luis Catão and Ramana Ramaswamy

National Institute Economic Review, 1996, vol. 157, 97-106

Abstract: This article uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the causes of the 1990-92 recession in the UK. The VAR approach is shown to be particularly pertinent for quantifying the relative magnitude of the different demand shocks, and in decomposing them into monetary and expectational factors. The main finding is that the recent recession was precipitated primarily by shocks to consumption, and that the prior monetary tightening and the subsequent collapse in the housing market explain just part of this contraction. Non-monetary shocks also appear to have played an important role in bringing about the recession. The VAR model also offers interesting insights on the nature of the recovery that is currently under way.

Date: 1996
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:nierev:v:157:y:1996:i::p:97-106_8

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in National Institute Economic Review from National Institute of Economic and Social Research Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().