The World Economy

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 2003, vol. 183, 8-33

Abstract: Risks of a US driven slowdown in world activity have receded in the past few months, as US consumer demand remains robust. However, a worsened outlook for Germany and Japan suggests that the recovery will be more gradual than previously anticipated, in part as a consequence of the strengthening of the euro and the yen against the dollar in recent months. We estimate that world growth recorded a modest improvement in 2002, rising to 2.7 per cent from 2.2 per cent in 2001. However, regional cyclical variation increased last year. While 2001 saw a sharp slowdown in growth across all the major regions of the world, with the world's three largest economies recording outright recessions, growth accelerated last year in the US, China and Dynamic Asia, but slowed further in the EU, Japan and South America.

Date: 2003
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