Measuring the Macroeconomic Effects of Reducing Benefit Dependency

Ray Barrell, Simon Kirby, Rebecca Riley and Desirée van Welsum

National Institute Economic Review, 2003, vol. 186, 85-97

Abstract: We construct a framework for evaluating the macroeconomic impact on the UK economy of policies that are aimed at reducing the number of people receiving social security benefits by helping them into employment. By means of model simulation we evaluate the gains to the economy in terms of output, employment and improvements to the public finances of a policy that reduces the number of people claiming disability benefits or lone parents on Income Support by 5 per cent. These gains can be regarded as significant and have to be offset against the costs of the policy. We conclude that it is possible to evaluate the impact of policies to enable benefit claimants to find work using a macroeconomic model, and that such an evaluation should be included in each assessment of policy change.

Date: 2003
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