 Prospects for the UK EconomyRay Barrell and Simon Kirby National Institute Economic Review, 2007, vol. 200, 34-52 Abstract: GDP growth in 2006 is estimated to have been 2.8 per cent per annum. This rate of growth is above our estimates of the trend rate of growth in the UK. On a quarterly basis the latest estimates suggest that growth above the trend rate occurred in the first half of 2006, with both quarters' growth rates at 0.8 per cent (see figure 1). The second half of the year saw quarterly growth rates at around the trend rate of 0.6 to 0.7 per cent. NIESR's estimate of monthly GDP implied that quarterly growth in the first quarter of this year was somewhat lower at 0.5 per cent because of a weak January. After this poor quarterly performance we expect an increase in economic growth due to household and government demand. Overall, this suggests a downward revision to our January forecast of 0.1 percentage points, although this is of little economic importance. We continue to expect the economy to moderate over the next three years. Our forecast is for GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent per annum this year, slowing to 2.6 and 2.4 per cent per annum in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Date: 2007 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:nierev:v:200:y:2007:i::p:34-52_5 Access Statistics for this article More articles in National Institute Economic Review from National Institute of Economic and Social Research Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK. Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.