OECD Will Regain Pre-Crisis Levels of Output in 2011

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

National Institute Economic Review, 2010, vol. 211, F12-F16

Abstract: The second quarter of 2009 marked the end of the global recession, and we estimate that global GDP increased by 1 per cent. However, the revival reflected growth in only a handful of economies, and was driven by a rise in domestic demand in an even smaller collection of countries. Government spending in mainland China, as well as Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, was the driving force behind the rebound in global GDP. The recovery broadened to the majority of economies in the third quarter of last year, with particularly strong growth in Mexico, Brazil, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia, as well as the Asian economies. Output continued to fall in the UK, Spain, Greece and several of the EU's new member states in the third quarter of 2009. Supported by highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, a sharp turn in the inventory cycle and external demand from Asia, the recovery has not yet spread to investment and consumer spending in many countries.

Date: 2010
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