UK Fiscal Prospects

Ray Barrell and Simon Kirby

National Institute Economic Review, 2010, vol. 213, F66-F70

Abstract: The UK is restructuring the fiscal policy framework once again, with an intention to move toward independent assessment and forecasting in the budget process. At the same time a large-scale, if delayed, fiscal consolidation is planned at a time when there is significant spare capacity in the economy. Economic growth is also projected to be below trend, at least this year and perhaps next. It is unusual to see a fiscal tightening when the output gap appears to be widening. These policy settings should be seen in the context of the most radical change in the nature of the relationship between the government and the economy for at least thirty years. This note assesses the impact of the new programme on the economy as well as setting out a projection for the medium-term public finances.

Date: 2010
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