World Overview and European Sovereign Debt

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Aurélie Delannoy, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Ali Orazgani and Paweł Paluchowski

National Institute Economic Review, 2011, vol. 215, F10-F15

Abstract: Short-tem inflationary pressures have risen on a global scale in recent months and, given the source of the impulse is commodity markets, this dampens the prospects for growth in 2011 in most countries. Global food prices have been under pressure since July 2010, reflecting poor harvests in many parts of the world. Metals prices have also risen rapidly, while non-food agricultural price inflation accelerated towards the end of the year. We expect average food and other agricultural prices in 2011 to be more than 25 per cent higher than they were in 2010, while metals prices are expected to be more than 30 per cent above last year's average level, as shown in figure 1. The price of oil exhibited moderate inflation through September 2010, but rose sharply in the final quarter of the year. The rise in the price of oil may be a reflection of demand pressures from countries such as China and India, as well as the recovery in demand from advanced economies, while the weakness of the US dollar and an expected tightening of regulation following recent oil spills may also be adding to price pressures. The price of Brent crude currently stands at over $98 per barrel, roughly $19 per barrel higher than was priced into futures markets three months ago. Barrell, Delannoy and Holland discuss the macroeconomic implications of the recent rise in the oil price elsewhere in this Review. If sustained we expect this to reduce growth in the OECD by about ½ per cent this year. The impact on oil-intensive emerging economies such as China and India may be slightly greater, while oil exporters gain from the high price.

Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: World Overview and European Sovereign Debt (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:nierev:v:215:y:2011:i::p:f10-f15_4

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in National Institute Economic Review from National Institute of Economic and Social Research Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().