The Economic Situation

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1963, vol. 26, 4-21

Abstract: The economy has probably been expanding rather faster than we thought in August. Since the fourth quarter of 1962 total national output has been rising at an annual rate of 5-6 per cent, and industrial production, as would be expected during a recovery, has been rising faster—at a rate of about 7 per cent; for manufacturing output the figure is slightly above 7 per cent. This is consistent with the most recent FBI survey, which implies a rise in manufacturing output of about 2½ per cent during the four months May to September. There has been some rise in employment in recent months, though in the third quarter it may not have been much higher than in the fourth quarter of 1962. Unemployment has been falling rapidly. Over the four months May/June (by when all the effects of the cold winter must have disappeared) to September/October the downward trend was at a rate of about 12 thousand a month.

Date: 1963
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