Forecasting Imports: A Re-Examination

I. G. Black, J. E. Kidgell and G. F. Ray

National Institute Economic Review, 1967, vol. 42, 52-57

Abstract: This article was prepared before the announcement of the devaluation of sterling on 18 November 1967In August 1965, an article in this Review considered the problem of the short-term forecasting of imports into this country. It argued that some aggregate relationship was probably necessary, for forecasting total imports of goods and services, mainly because stockbuilding appeared to have an important and distinctive influence on imports. The import content of stockbuilding seemed to be much higher than the import content of other forms of expenditure. It was not possible to distinguish the separate influence of stockbuilding on different categories of imports—food, basic materials, fuel, and so on.

Date: 1967
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