Chapter II. Forecasts for the Economy

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1969, vol. 47, 32-46

Abstract: Output probably continued to rise quite strongly in the fourth quarter of 1968, although in a more restrained manner than in the previous quarter. The rate of rise of industrial production tailed off slightly. Unemployment fell substantially, but movements in this series are not a very good guide to contemporaneous movements in demand and output, appearing as they do to lag quite heavily behind such shifts. (Thus, the quite large reduction in the numbers of wholly unemployed (over 45 thousand, seasonally adjusted) between the third and fourth quarters predominantly reflects the sharp recovery of output in the third quarter, when unemployment rose by 30 thousand.)

Date: 1969
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