Chapter II. The Forecast to 1972

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1971, vol. 55, 22-37

Abstract: After rising slightly between the second and third quarters, output in the economy as a whole seems to have stagnated in the fourth quarter. Because of the dip in the first quarter of the year, however, output in the second half of the year as a whole may have been 2½–3 per cent up on the first half (at annual rates). The course of the industrial production index has been affected by strike activity, making it more difficult to use as a base for estimating GDP. But taking the average of the three months' figures in the fourth quarter (there were erratic movements month to month), and comparing it with values for base periods less affected by strikes than was the third quarter, gives a figure for GDP which suggests that output in the economy as a whole was stagnant in the last six months of 1970. The recent rise in unemployment is consistent with this picture.

Date: 1971
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