Chapter I. The Home Economy

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1977, vol. 82, 6-19

Abstract: In the three months since our last forecast, the two major changes of policy have been the fiscal measures announced on 26 October and the decision to allow the exchange rate to float from 31 October. The effect on our forecast of the October fiscal changes is not in fact all that great. We had already assumed that personal tax allowances would be indexed next spring, so that this element of the package merely brings forward a change already incorporated in our figures beyond the second quarter of 1978. The same can be said of the increase in child benefits next April, which had already been announced by August. Apart from the effect of the tax cuts in the next six months, there remains only the £400 million increased expenditure on construction as an additional net stimulus to demand, compared with the assumptions made last time.

Date: 1977
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