Chapter II. The Medium-Term

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1978, vol. 86, 15-28

Abstract: In making any projection, it is necessary to rely to a greater or lesser extent on the continuation of past patterns of behaviour. This may be through the use of econometric relationships or by the extrapolation of past trends of various kinds. The latter are often of critical importance in medium-term projections. Yet in a number of areas, there is growing evidence that patterns of development may have been fundamentally altered by the world and domestic recession and inflation of the years after 1973, and by the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime.

Date: 1978
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