Chapter I. The Home Economy

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1979, vol. 89, 11-23

Abstract: Our view of the short-term prospects for the domestic economy has worsened markedly since May. This is only in part because of the Budget of 12 June: indeed it is important to bear in mind, if comparisons are made with the May forecasts, that we had allowed for public expenditure cuts for 1979/80 on the scale which has now been announced and we also built in the indexation of both personal tax allowances and specific indirect taxes and duties. Thus, so far as the change in the outlook for the current financial year is concerned, the Budget effects are broadly limited to the move to a uniform VAT rate of 15 per cent together with the cuts in personal income tax rates. For 1980/81, we have reduced our public expenditure volume forecast substantially from the figures given in May. The other major factor tending to alter the outlook was the unexpectedly rapid growth this year of imports.

Date: 1979
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