Chapter I. Review of 1980 and Errors in Forecasting

Anonymous

National Institute Economic Review, 1981, vol. 95, 7-31

Abstract: In 1980 the UK economy experienced its most dramatic fall in economic activity since the great crash in 1929 and in some respects the recession was even sharper. Real GDP fell by 4½ per cent during the year, 80 per cent of this fall occurring between the first and third quarters alone. The brunt of the current recession has been borne by manufacturing output, which fell by 15¾ per cent between the second quarter of 1979 and the fourth quarter of 1980. In 1980 as a whole manufacturing output is estimated to be 9 per cent lower than in 1979. Between the years 1929 and 1931 real GDP fell by 5 per cent (see chart 1) and manufacturing output fell by 10¾ per cent.

Date: 1981
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