International Treaty Ratification and Party Competition: Theory and Evidence from the EU's Constitutional Treaty*

Andreas Dür and Nikitas Konstantinidis

Political Science Research and Methods, 2013, vol. 1, issue 2, 179-200

Abstract: What explains a party's dual decision about whether to endorse a referendum on an international treaty and whether to support that treaty in a referendum campaign? Relying on an original game of second-order electoral competition, this article argues that the relative likelihood of a party endorsing a referendum is highest at the beginning and end of the electoral cycle, and when the public supports the treaty. The study uses data on the position of 175 parties in 24 member states vis-à-vis the EU's Constitutional Treaty and its preferred mechanism of ratification to test these expectations against empirical evidence. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, it finds robust support for the argument.

Date: 2013
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