Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Michael Smithson, Thomas Bartos and Kazuhisa Takemura

Risk, Decision and Policy, 2000, vol. 5, issue 2, 135-150

Abstract: This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

Date: 2000
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