Optimal pollution control under imprecise environmental risk and irreversibility

Morgane Chevé () and Ronan Congar

Risk, Decision and Policy, 2000, vol. 5, issue 2, 151-164

Abstract: This paper deals with a model of pollution accumulation in which a catastrophic environmental event occurs once the pollution stock exceeds some uncertain critical level. This problem is studied in a context of ‘hard uncertainty’ since we consider that the available knowledge concerning the value taken by the critical pollution threshold contains both randomness and imprecision. Such a general form of knowledge is modelled as a (closed) random interval. This approach is mathematically tractable and amenable to numerical simulations. In this framework we investigate the effect of hard uncertainty on the optimal pollution/consumption trade-off and we compare the results with those obtained both in the certainty case and in the case of ‘soft uncertainty’ (where only randomness prevails).

Date: 2000
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