Crises and Crashes: Argentina 1825-2002*

Ana Cerro () and Osvaldo Meloni

Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 2013, vol. 31, issue 2, 219-252

Abstract: The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it identifies and categorizes the currency crises suffered by Argentina from 1825 to 2002. Second, it looks for regularities in the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables in the neighbourhood of crises by means of graphic analysis, non-parametric and econometric techniques. We found that expansions in public expenditures as well as increases in the debt to GDP ratio and falls in the rate of growth of bank deposits contribute to spur the probability of crisis. Unfavourable external conditions, jointly with domestic imbalances, help to explain very deep crises or crashes. Este trabajo tiene un doble objetivo. En primer lugar identifica y categoriza las crisis sufridas por Argentina desde 1825 hasta 2002. Con ese insumo, intenta encontrar regularidades en el comportamiento de variables macroeconómicas claves en el vecindario de las crisis mediante análisis gráfico y métodos no paramétricos y paramétricos. Encontramos que las expansiones en el gasto público así como los aumentos en el ratio de deuda a PIB y las caídas en la tasa de crecimiento de los depósitos bancarios aumentan las probabilidades de crisis. Los empeoramientos en las condiciones externas, conjuntamente con los desajustes domésticos, contribuyen a explicar las crisis muy profundas.

Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:reveco:v:31:y:2013:i:02:p:219-252_00

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