The Impact of Shared Autonomous Vehicles on the Urban Mobility of the Future

Orlando Figueredo Maldonado, Leider Inocencio Saraiba Núñez and Leudi Orlando Vega De la Cruz

SAP Transport, Mobility & Society, 2026

Abstract: Urban mobility is undergoing a profound transformation driven by technological innovation, demographic shifts, and environmental imperatives. Among the most disruptive developments is the emergence of Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs), which promise to redefine transportation efficiency, sustainability, and accessibility. This study aims to assess the potential impact of SAVs on future urban mobility, focusing on key dimensions such as traffic congestion, emissions, operational costs, and equity. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining a systematic literature review, case studies of pilot cities (San Francisco, Gothenburg, Shenzhen), traffic microsimulations, and semi-structured interviews with experts in urban planning and autonomous technologies. Analytical tools included PTV Vissim for traffic modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and demand forecasting software. Findings reveal that SAVs can reduce traffic congestion by up to 40% in densely populated areas, lower CO₂ emissions by 25%, and expand transport coverage in underserved zones. However, regulatory, technological, and social challenges remain, potentially hindering short-term implementation. The study concludes that while SAVs hold transformative potential, their success depends on integrated public policies, smart infrastructure, and broad societal acceptance.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cwf:tmsart:tms2026301

DOI: 10.56294/tms2026301

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