Disaggregated Agricultural Output and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Evidence from a Linear Framework

Wasiu Omotayo Lawal and Zainab Abubakar
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Wasiu Omotayo Lawal: Department of Economics, Al-Hikmah University
Zainab Abubakar: Department of Economics, Federal University Dutse

East African Finance Journal, 2026, vol. 5, issue 1

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of agricultural output on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria from 1980 to 2024. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to examine both short-run and long-run dynamics. The stationarity properties of the variables were tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and KPSS tests. The cointegration results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between agricultural output variables and real gross domestic product. The empirical findings indicate that crop production and forestry output exert significant positive effects on GDP, while livestock and fishery outputs show positive but statistically insignificant impacts. Inflation also demonstrates a positive and significant influence on GDP, whereas interest rate and exchange rate effects are negligible. Short-run dynamics reveal that variations in livestock and crop production significantly influence economic growth. Diagnostic tests confirm the stability of the model, absence of serial correlation, homoskedasticity, and normally distributed residuals. Overall, the findings highlight the critical role of agriculture, particularly crop and forestry subsectors, in driving Nigeria’s economic performance and underscore the need for policies that strengthen agricultural productivity, value chain development, and sectoral integration to support sustainable economic growth.

Keywords: Agricultural output; Crop production; Fishery production; Livestock production; Forestry production; Economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 O13 Q10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cwk:eafjke:2026-12

DOI: 10.59413/eafj/v5.i1.12

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