Democracy and political turnover experience in Africa

Désiré Avom and Adalbert Abraham Ghislain MELINGUI Bate
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Désiré Avom: University of Yaoundé II, Cameroon
Adalbert Abraham Ghislain MELINGUI Bate: University of Bertoua, Cameroon

Les Cahiers du CEDIMES, 2025, vol. 20, issue 4, 8-20

Abstract: This paper empirically tests the effect of the quality of democracy on the probability of re-election of African incumbents. A Probit model is estimated on a sample of 43 countries over the period from 1980 to 2020. Our results strongly show that the quality of democracy negatively and significantly affects the probability of re-election of incumbents. Disaggregating the democracy indicators shows that dictatorship practices significantly favour incumbents’ re-election. We recommend strengthening institutional mechanisms promoting political rights and freedoms to favour electoral turnover.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.69611/cahiers20-4-01

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