The mediating role of fertility pressure in the relationship between policy communication and fertility intentions: evidence from China

Yifan Zhang
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Yifan Zhang: Ural Federal University

Siberian Journal of Economic and Business Studies, 2026, vol. 15, issue 2, 66-83

Abstract: Background. Declining fertility and population ageing represent a serious challenge for major world economies. Despite substantial investment in family policy, fertility continues to fall, indicating that existing theories of how policy affects reproductive decisions remain incomplete. Most policy-evaluation methods focus on the direct link between measures and behavior, ignoring the complex psychological and socio-economic processes underlying the decision to have a child. Purpose. To identify and quantify the mediating role of fertility pressure in the causal relationship between demographic policy communication and individual fertility intentions in China. The research tasks are: (1) to measure the direct effect of policy communication; (2) to estimate the indirect effect through fertility pressure; (3) to assess the economic significance of both effects for family-policy improvement. Materials and methods. Between June 2024 and April 2025, 475 valid questionnaires were collected from respondents across different regions of China via an online platform. Structural equation modelling (SPSS 29), Baron and Kenny’s stepwise regression, and bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals (5000 iterations) were applied to test the mediating effect. Results. The findings reveal that demographic policy communication has a “double-edged sword” effect on fertility intentions: a significantly negative direct effect (β = −1.6297; p

Keywords: fertility policy; policy communication; fertility pressure; fertility intentions; mediation analysis; population economics; China; demographic transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cxm:rusebs:15:2:2026:66-83

DOI: 10.12731/3033-5973-2026-15-2-329

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