The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt

Esther Gordo, Eddie Casey, Inna Oliinyk, Willem-Pieter de Groen, José Miguel Ramos Carrasco and James Jolovski

Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), 2021, vol. 67, issue 3, 199-223

Abstract: Weakened growth, along with the use of automatic stabilisers and additional fiscal stimulus measures, has led to higher public debt levels. Against this backdrop, the present paper aims to assess the role of Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), focusing on their public debt modelling. The paper draws on new data from a review of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) practices in the EU and a survey of members of the Network of EU IFIs. More specifically, it explores the main challenges for IFIs in modelling public debt in times of greater unpredictability, higher public debt, and low interest rates. Drawing on the experiences of various IFIs, the paper offers preliminary insights into how to address these challenges.

Keywords: Independent Fiscal Institutions; Public Debt; Debt Sustainability Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H60 H63 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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