Testing the Adaptive Market Hypothesis through the Presence of Dependence in the Swiss Stock Exchange

Christophe Boya

Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), 2023, vol. 69, issue 2, 61-80

Abstract: This paper focuses on whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides an appropriate framework to describe the behavior of the Swiss index market. The analysis uses a time varying Hurst modified exponent with both fixed and varying sliding window lengths. Results suggest that often the Swiss stock exchange follows an independent stochastic process. However, investigation reveals the presence of periods of inefficiency suggesting significant return predictability that occur depending on changing market conditions such as global macroeconomics. These events, which can be either exogenous or endogenous shocks are associated with either long-range dependence or mean-reverting phenomenon. These results provide insights into investment horizons and investors reactions. Trans-Abstract: Testing the Adaptive Market Hypothesis through the Presence of Dependence in the Swiss Stock Exchange This paper focuses on whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides an appropriate framework to describe the behavior of the Swiss index market. The analysis uses a time varying Hurst modified exponent with both fixed and varying sliding window lengths. Results suggest that often the Swiss stock exchange follows an independent stochastic process. However, investigation reveals the presence of periods of inefficiency suggesting significant return predictability that occur depending on changing market conditions such as global macroeconomics. These events, which can be either exogenous or endogenous shocks are associated with either long-range dependence or mean-reverting phenomenon. These results provide insights into investment horizons and investors reactions.

Keywords: adaptive markets; efficient markets; hurst modified exponent; time varying approach; investment horizon; C12; C14; G14; G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C14 G14 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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