Causal Impact of Cashback Campaigns on Post-Marketing Default Behavior in Consumer Lending

Anna Sokolov, Dmitry Kuznetsov and Ivan Petrov

Journal of Sustainability, Policy, and Practice, 2026, vol. 2, issue 1, 168-173

Abstract: This study examines how cashback marketing campaigns influence subsequent credit-risk outcomes. Using an AB testing framework implemented on a dataset of 640,000 loan applicants, the treatment group received a one-time cashback incentive, while the control group did not. Propensity-score weighting and double-machine-learning estimators were applied to isolate causal effects. Results show that campaign exposure increases short-term activation rates by 18.4% but also raises 90-day delinquency risk by 6.7 percentage points. Heterogeneity analysis reveals significantly larger default spillovers among new-to-bank customers (increase of 11.3 pp). A cost-risk decomposition suggests that while the campaign boosts revenue in the first month, cumulative losses surpass gains after 5.6 months. The findings highlight the risk implications of customer-acquisition incentives.

Keywords: causal inference; marketing spillover; AB test; consumer lending; default risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dba:jsppaa:v:2:y:2026:i:1:p:168-173

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