Econometric Modelling of the Relationship between Agri-Food Exports and Food Security: The Case of the Republic of Moldova

Alexandru Stratan, Zinovia Toaca, Viorica Lopotenco and Liliana Saver
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Zinovia Toaca: Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
Viorica Lopotenco: Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
Liliana Saver: Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova

Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Studies, 2025, issue 4, 145-154

Abstract: This paper examines whether agri-food export performance is linked to domestic food (in)security in the Republic of Moldova. Using annual time-series data for 2001–2024 on the value of agri-food exports (USD), agricultural production (MDL), and the share of the population facing food insecurity (percent), we apply Johansen cointegration tests and an error-correction model (ECM). The maximum-eigenvalue statistic indicates one cointegrating relationship among the variables, suggesting a stable long-run equilibrium. In the ECM, short-run changes in food insecurity are statistically significant, while changes in agricultural production are not, and the error-correction term is negative but statistically insignificant. Descriptively, Moldova’s export basket has shifted from a strong weight of food and beverages in the late 1990s to a more diversified structure in which plant products became prominent by 2024, alongside a gradual reorientation of export destinations towards the European Union. A key limitation is that official food insecurity series are available only from 2015; earlier values are completed through interpolation/extrapolation, so long-run coefficients should be interpreted with caution.

Keywords: agri-food exports; food insecurity; co-integration; ECM; Republic of Moldova (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ddj:ejards:y:2025:i:4:p:145-154

DOI: 10.35219/jards.2025.4.11

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