Analysis of Groundnut Exports and GDP Dynamics in Nigeria (1972–2022)

Adedapo Abayomi Afolabi, Temidayo Gabriel Apata, Matthew Olufemi Adio, Oladele Charles Ajewole and Roseline Boluwaji Oloniyo
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Adedapo Abayomi Afolabi: Department of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management, Federal University, Oye Ekiti, Nigeria
Temidayo Gabriel Apata: Department of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management, Federal University, Oye Ekiti, Nigeria
Matthew Olufemi Adio: Department of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management, Federal University, Oye Ekiti, Nigeria
Oladele Charles Ajewole: Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension Services, Ekiti State University, Ado Ekiti, Nigeria
Roseline Boluwaji Oloniyo: Department of Agricultural Technology, Ekiti State University, Isan Ekiti, Nigeria

Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Studies, 2025, issue 4, 97-105

Abstract: This study examined the impact of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) exports on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1971 to 2022, employing multiple linear regression techniques with log-transformed variables. The analysis included key macroeconomic indicators, such as the exchange rate, inflation, per capita income, and groundnut yield per hectare, to determine their collective and individual effects on economic growth. The regression results reveal that while groundnut exports (INEXP) exhibit a positive coefficient (0.008257), the effect on GDP is statistically weak, suggesting a limited direct contribution to national output. Conversely, the exchange rate (INEXRATE) and per capita income (INPERCAP) show strong and statistically significant relationships with GDP growth, with coefficients of 0.123033 and 1.148422, respectively. Inflation (ININFLA) showed a negative but statistically insignificant impact on GDP. In contrast, groundnut yield per hectare (INYIELD_HA) demonstrates a negligible effect, highlighting the inefficiency of productivity gains without market integration or value addition. Findings from the study underscore the need for targeted policy interventions to revitalize the groundnut export sector through infrastructure investment, value chain development, and quality enhancement. Additionally, managing exchange rate policy and improving household income remain critical for driving inclusive economic growth. This study provides empirical evidence to support Nigeria’s non-oil export diversification agenda and informs policy under regional trade initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Keywords: Groundnut exports; GDP growth; Regression analysis; Agricultural trade; Nigeria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ddj:ejards:y:2025:i:4:p:97-105

DOI: 10.35219/jards.2025.4.08

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