Statistical Modelling Relevance and Implications for Agricultural Extension

Albert Thembinkosi Modi and Mbikazi Ketelo
Additional contact information
Albert Thembinkosi Modi: Walter Sisulu University, Mthatha, South Africa
Mbikazi Ketelo: Walter Sisulu University, Mthatha, South Africa

Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Studies, 2026, issue 2, 244-255

Abstract: Agricultural extension systems in South Africa face increasing pressure to provide timely, location-specific, and risk-aware advisories to dryland grain farmers under intensifying climate variability. Statistical climate modelling has emerged as a critical bridge between climate science and farm-level decision-making, yet its application within extension practice remains uneven. This review synthesises peer‑reviewed literature published between 2010 and 2026 on climate data curation, statistical and spatial modelling, and crop–climate integration relevant to agricultural extension in South Africa and comparable semi‑arid regions. Trends in climate variability affecting dryland grain systems are examined alongside statistical methods used to link climate drivers with yield and risk outcomes. Approaches for embedding modelling outputs into extension advisory systems are assessed. Results indicate a shift from descriptive analyses towards integrated, multi‑model decision‑support frameworks combining downscaled climate data, regression and time‑series techniques, and process‑based crop models. Persistent gaps remain in local calibration, uncertainty communication, and extension capacity. A consolidated, extension‑oriented modelling framework is proposed, with priorities for research, policy, and capacity development identified to strengthen climate-smart agricultural extension.

Keywords: Agricultural extension; climate change; climate-smart agriculture; dryland grain; statistical modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.jards.ugal.ro/images/jards/journal/2026_2/Modi_et_al.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ddj:ejards:y:2026:i:2:p:244-255

DOI: 10.35219/jards.2026.2.17

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Studies from "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Doctoral Field Engineering and Management in Agriculture and Rural Development Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Gianina Mihai ().