Agroclimatological Evidence of Thermal Gap Periods and Phenological Mismatch in Iraqi Potato Agroecosystems

Raghad Mouhamad, Maysaa H. Ahmed, Hamid Sh. Al-Delfi and Maryam W. Huwaish
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Raghad Mouhamad: Scientific Research Commission, Baghdad, Iraq
Maysaa H. Ahmed: Department of Applied Biology, College of Biotechnology, Al-Nahrain University, Baghdad, Iraq
Hamid Sh. Al-Delfi: Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Baghdad, Iraq
Maryam W. Huwaish: Genetic Resources Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Baghdad, Iraq

Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Studies, 2026, issue 2, 44-56

Abstract: Potato production in Iraq is increasingly exposed to accelerated warming, recurrent heat stress, and shifting seasonal conditions that may disrupt crop developmental timing and reduce yield stability. This study developed an integrated agroclimatological framework combining ERA5 climate data, MODIS land surface temperature, satellite-derived vegetation dynamics, and potato production statistics to evaluate three major thermal instability periods (2008–2011, 2015–2018, and 2022–2024). A weighted Thermal–Phenological Gap Index (TPGI) was constructed to integrate thermal accumulation, heat-stress frequency, NDVI temporal displacement, and growing season contraction. Random Forest regression was additionally applied to evaluate predictor importance and model performance. Overall results showed a gradual increase in the magnitude of thermal and phenological stress during subsequent instability periods, especially in the central and southern Iraqi agroecosystems. Weighted TPGI showed significant negative correlations with potato yield variation ((r=-0.74), (p

Keywords: Agroclimatology; Potato production; Thermal gap periods; Phenological mismatch; Remote sensing; Climate stress (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ddj:ejards:y:2026:i:2:p:44-56

DOI: 10.35219/jards.2026.2.04

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