Oil Price Shocks and Global Food Prices: Evidence on the Energy–Food Nexus

Silvius Stanciu
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Silvius Stanciu: Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Galati, Romania

Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Studies, 2026, issue 2, 5-22

Abstract: The paper proposes an analysis of the relationship between Brent crude oil prices and global food prices within the framework of the Energy–Food Nexus. Using monthly data for the period January 1990–May 2026, the analysis considers the FAO Food Price Index and its main commodity sub-indices: meat, dairy products, cereals, vegetable oils, and sugar. The methodology combines descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, unit root testing, ARDL modelling, and Granger causality testing to assess both overall and commodity-specific transmission effects. The results show strong positive relationships between oil prices and food prices, with the highest correlations observed for dairy products and cereals. ARDL estimates confirm positive long-run effects of Brent crude oil prices on the FAO Food Price Index and selected food commodity groups. Dairy products and cereals appear to be the most sensitive categories, while meat prices show comparatively lower volatility and weaker sensitivity to oil market fluctuations. The findings highlight the heterogeneous nature of the Energy–Food Nexus and suggest that energy price shocks are transmitted unevenly across food markets. These results have important implications for food security, agricultural policy, and the resilience of global agri-food systems in a context of geopolitical instability and commodity market volatility.

Keywords: Oil price shocks; Food prices; Energy–Food Nexus; FAO Food Price Index; Brent crude oil; ARDL model; Food security; Agricultural commodities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ddj:ejards:y:2026:i:2:p:5-22

DOI: 10.35219/jards.2026.2.01

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