Consistency and Exchange Rate Expectations
Swarna D. Dutt
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Swarna D. Dutt: West Georgia College, Carrollton, GA 30118, USA
Indian Economic Review, 1996, vol. 31, issue 2, 205-222
Abstract:
This study examines consistency in the exchange rate expectation formation process. A standard expectation formation model namely exponential forecasting is used to theoretically draw the consistency conditions and then we empirically test the same. Since the literature has expressed reservations about structural expectation processes, a model independent analysis (multivariate cointegration test) is also conducted. Consistency in the expectation formation process is not rejected (rejected) at the short (long) horizon in the structural framework, while it is upheld across the board by the cointegration procedure. Thus while one methodology supports consistency the others support bandwagon expectations.
JEL-codes: F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dse:indecr:v:31:y:1996:i:2:p:205-222
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