Economic Cycle Research Institute and Pennsylvania State University

Philip A. Klein
Additional contact information
Philip A. Klein: Lagging Indicators Forgotten Aids to Forecasting

Indian Economic Review, 2001, vol. 36, issue 1, 171-188

Abstract: Leading, coincident, and lagging indicators continue to corroborate Mitchell’s view that they reflect crucial sequential changes in economic activity. Lagging indicators, most especially in inverted form, exhibit long if variable leads at peaks, thereby becoming the first anticipation of a future peak. Evidence confirming past troughs is also the first sign of the next if still distant peak. Lagging indicators are also useful in forecasting inflation rate turns, leading at inflation cycle peaks by about six months in both the U.S. and Sweden. Our study confirms Geoffrey Moore’s old prediction that the lagging index would prove useful in assessing cyclical changes in economic activity.

JEL-codes: E32 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:171-188

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.ierdse.org/

Access Statistics for this article

Indian Economic Review is currently edited by Pami Dua (Editor) & Ram Singh (Associate Editor) and Sunil Kanwar

More articles in Indian Economic Review from Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics University of Delhi, Delhi 110 007. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Pami Dua ().