Analysis of the Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product by Means of Cyclic Regressions

Catalin Angelo Ioan and Gina Ioan ()
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Gina Ioan: Danubius University of Galati, Romania

Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, 2011, issue 4(4), 114-126

Abstract: In this article, we will carry out an analysis on the regularity of the Gross Domestic Product of a country, in our case the United States. The method of analysis is based on a new method of analysis – the cyclic regressions based on the Fourier series of a function. Another point of view is that of considering instead the growth rate of GDP the speed of variation of this rate, computed as a numerical derivative. The obtained results show a cycle for this indicator for 71 years, the mean square error being 0.93%. The method described allows an prognosis on short-term trends in GDP.

Keywords: GDP; cycle; Fourier; regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2011:i:4:p:114-126

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