How to Improve the SPF Forecasts?

Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu) ()
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Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu): Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania

Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, 2013, issue 9(2), 153-165

Abstract: Many researchers are interested in making predictions for macroeconomic variables, but few of them studied the accuracy of their forecasts. The problem is essential, especially in crisis periods, because from many forecasts made for the same indicator only one or few are the most accurate. In this research, some alternative forecasts for the annual rate of change for the HICP for EU were developed. Their accuracy was evaluated and compared with the accuracy of SPF predictions. All the proposed predictions for January 2010-May 2012 (those based on a random walk developed for 1997-2009, combined forecasts, the median and the mean of forecasts, predictions based on different econometric models that take into account the previous SPF forecasts) were not more accurate than the naïve forecasts or SPF ones. A considerably improvement of the accuracy was gotten for predictions based on mean error of SPF expectations for 1997-2009 and the previous registered value. This empirical strategy of building more accurate forecasts was better than the classical theoretical approaches from literature, but it is still less accurate than the naïve forecasts that could be made for UE inflation rate. So, the forecasts based on a simple econometric model as the random walk from the naïve approach are the most accurate, conclusion that is in accordance with the latest researches in literature and with one of the essential condition in forecasting theory.

Keywords: forecasts accuracy; combined forecasts; naïve forecasts; SPF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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