The Kalman Filter Approach for Estimating the Natural Unemployment Rate in Romania

Mihaela Simionescu

Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, 2014, issue 10(1), 148-159

Abstract: The aim of this research is to determine the monthly natural rate of unemployment during the third quarter of 2013 in Romania. The Phillips curve approach is not valid for the Romanian economy, but Kalman filter is a suitable approach for computing the natural rate of unemployment. We make the assumption that the cyclical component follows a random walk. Predictions were made for the unemployment rate in Romania using Kalman approach during July-September 2013 and on this horizon an insignificant decrease was observed from a month to another. A value of 5.85% is expected for unemployment rate in Romania in September 2013.

Keywords: Kalman filter; natural rate of unemployment; forecasts; random walk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/2146/2068 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2014:i:1:p:148-159

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica from Danubius University of Galati Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Daniela Robu ().