An Econo-Physics View on the Historical Dynamics of the Albanian Currency vs. Euro Exchange Rates

Dode Prenga (), Sander Kovaçi () and Elmira Kushta ()
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Dode Prenga: University of Tirana
Sander Kovaçi: University of Tirana
Elmira Kushta: University “I.Qemali”

Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, 2020, issue 16(1), 238-251

Abstract: The descriptive analysis for the very long-term behavior of the Euro/ALL exchange rates has identified a near to average .revert behavior which contradict some econometric arguments and economical level of the country. Apparent anxious regimes have continuously ended up without crashing and generally the national currency of the not competitive economy has shown a nearly stabilized dynamics toward EU currency. Some of those properties have been explained herein by employing the analysis of the system from complexity and econo-physics point of view. So, by approaching the trend we obtained that the time precursor is characterized by local self-organization regimes that never organized in long scale to produce dangerous move. Thermodynamic–like processes have acted constantly as stabilizer of the national currency value. More details and features have been considered by analyzing the distributions and multifractal structure of the series in the framework of the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics approach. Gathering the information about the stationarity of the states, presences of regimes and their properties, we realized to identify the optimal condition for measurement, modeling and steadfast descriptive statistics. Finally, by using neural network we have realized a forecasting example for one month time interval. The work aims to reveal the importance of interdisciplinary consideration for better results in the study of complex socioeconomic systems.

Keywords: Econophysics; exchange rate; q-statistics; multifractal; neural networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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