 EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS IN THE MENA REGION: A MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION, CAUSALITY AND STABILITY ANALYSISApplied Econometrics and International Development, 2010, vol. 10, issue 2 Abstract: Empirical evidence supporting the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has been mixed and inconclusive. Some studies may have been misspecified since they tested the ELG hypothesis using bivariate models. Others used multivariate cointegration framework but presumed (either explicitly or implicitly) stability of the cointegrating relations. This study examines the ELG hypothesis for eight Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in a multivariate framework by including terms of trade as a third variable. We utilize Johansen and Juselius cointegration procedure and error correction modeling to test the ELG hypothesis. The empirical evidence supports the existence of a “stable” long-run equilibrium relationship among real output, real exports, terms of trade, and finds strong support for the ELG hypothesis in all but one of the MENA countries analyzed. Keywords: Economic growth; Exports; Cointegration; Causality; Stability (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:10:y:2010:i:2_13 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article More articles in Applied Econometrics and International Development from Euro-American Association of Economic Development |
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