THE DURATION OF TRADE AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS

Lizzette Arroyo and Ramon A. Castillo-Ponce

Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2019, vol. 19, issue 2, 19-36

Abstract: In this document we analyze the factors that influence the length of trade agreement negotiations. We consider economic and sociopolitical determinants and conduct the exercise estimating Cox-proportional hazard models. We find that divergence in the economic size or growth tends to expedite trade talks. This is also true for differences in trade openness. Political factors, on the other hand, prolong the implementation of trade agreements. Specifically, trade negotiations stall as countries adopt more radical political positions; opposite to their potential trading partners. This last result is particularly relevant in today’s trade environment, where a shift in political preferences in countries like the US and Great Brittan has created a wedge between these countries and their main trading partners.

Keywords: Trade; Negotiation; Duration. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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