INVERSIÓN PÚBLICA EN INFRAESTRUCTURA Y CRECIMIENTO REGIONAL EN PERÚ, 2005-2020: UN ANÁLISIS BASADO EN TÉCNICAS DE APRENDIZAJE AUTOMÁTICO CAUSAL

Mario D. Tello

Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 2024, vol. 24, issue 2, 195-222

Abstract: En contraste con la extensa literatura sobre los impactos de la inversión en infraestructura pública sobre el crecimiento regional, y basado en un diseño experimental con técnicas de Aprendizaje Automático (Machine Learning), este trabajo examina la posible causalidad de dichos impactos en un país en desarrollo de ingreso medio, el Perú, donde los gobiernos subnacionales aún dependen de las transferencias del gobierno central para sus inversiones. Usando las bases de datos de Transparencia Económica del Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas del Perú (MEF, 2024), los resultados sugieren que las inversiones públicas en infraestructura (totales y componentes) en los tres estamentos de gobierno (central, regional, y local) no causan crecimiento regional en las 24 regiones (departamentos) del Perú en el periodo 2005-2020. Al parecer, dicho crecimiento depende de factores estándar tales como los ingresos derivados de los recursos naturales, las inversiones en capital, y la fuerza laboral.

In contrast to the extensive literature on the impacts of investment in public infrastructure on regional growth and based on an experimental design with Machine Learning techniques, this work examines the possible causality of said impacts in a middle-income developing country, Peru, where subnational governments still depend on transfers from the central government for their investments. Using the Economic Transparency databases of the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Peru (MEF, 2024), the results suggest that public investments in infrastructure (total and components) in the three levels of government (central, regional, and local) They do not cause regional growth in the 24 regions (departments) of Peru in the period 2005-2020. Such growth appears to depend on standard factors such as income derived from natural resources, capital investments, and the labor force.

Keywords: Regional Growth; Machine Learning; Public Investment. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O18 P25 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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