The predictive power of real M1 for real economic activity in the euro area

Alberto Musso

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2019, vol. 3

Abstract: The evidence presented in this box suggests that the leading and pro-cyclical properties of real M1 for real GDP remain a robust stylised fact for the euro area. Moreover, the box documents that these properties seem to reflect the information content of narrow money, beyond the influence of interest rates. Finally, the box presents model-based evidence indicating that despite the recent deceleration, recent real M1 developments do not point to risks of a recession in the euro area up to early 2020. JEL Classification: E32, E44, E47, E51

Keywords: Real M1; recession risks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-04
Note: 93259
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2019:0003:4

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